Vietnam’s rice export in early 2026: Higher export volumes but lower prices amid global supply chain disruptions

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam’s rice exports in February 2026 are estimated at 640 thousand tonnes, generating USD 289.4 million in export revenue.

Cumulatively, in the first two months of 2026, rice exports reached 1.3 million tonnes, valued at USD 599.3 million, representing a 5% year-on-year increase in volume but an 11.2% decline in export value compared with the same period last year.

The average export price of rice during January–February 2026 is estimated at USD 464.1 per tonne, down 15.4% year-on-year.

The Philippines remained Vietnam’s largest rice export destination, accounting for 47.6% of total market share. China and Ghana followed as the second and third largest markets, with respective shares of 18.3% and 8.9%.

Compared with the same period last year, rice export value to the Philippines in January 2026 increased by 17.6%, while exports to China surged 5.8-fold. In contrast, exports to Ghana declined by 31%.

Among the 15 largest export destinations, rice export value recorded the strongest growth in China (up 5.8 times) and the steepest decline in Côte d’Ivoire (down 90.9%).

According to rice exporters, Vietnam’s 5% broken rice is currently quoted at USD 360–365 per tonne, unchanged from the previous week. A trader in Ho Chi Minh City noted that trading activity has slowed as buyers remain cautious and are waiting for further price declines, while domestic supply is rising as the Winter–Spring harvest enters its peak period.

Preliminary data indicate that in February 2026, southern Vietnamese ports handled more than 382,000 tonnes of rice, most of which was exported to the Philippines and African markets. Although the conflict involving Iran has not directly affected shipments from Vietnam to Africa, traders confirmed that freight costs have risen significantly, driven by higher insurance premiums and escalating fuel prices.

While Vietnamese rice prices remained broadly stable over the past week, India’s rice export prices declined, reflecting excess supply and a record depreciation of the Indian rupee. Meanwhile, Thai rice prices also edged lower amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are exerting pressure on global maritime transport.

In India, prices for 5% broken parboiled rice fell to USD 348–353 per tonne, compared with USD 350–356 per tonne in the previous week. 5% broken white rice was quoted at USD 346–351 per tonne. The rupee’s depreciation to a record low this week has enabled exporters to widen margins and lower offer prices to attract international buyers.

However, India’s rice export sector is facing significant logistical challenges. Approximately 400,000 tonnes of Basmati rice are currently congested at ports or in transit. New export contracts have stalled as freight rates have doubled since the escalation of the US–Israel–Iran conflict.

In Thailand, the price of 5% broken rice declined from USD 385 to USD 380 per tonne. Traders in Bangkok noted that Thai rice is facing intensifying price competition from India, while concerns about El Niño could potentially reduce production in the coming months.

The global rice market is increasingly influenced by the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Hostilities intensified after the United States reportedly attacked an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, disrupting shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Global agribusiness group Bunge stated that it is actively seeking alternative shipping routes to mitigate supply chain disruptions. Meanwhile, in Bangladesh, the government has instructed relevant ministries to take urgent measures to curb domestic rice price increases, despite expanding imports through both state and private procurement channels.

Regarding the domestic rice market, in An Giang Province, farm-gate prices for OM 18 and Dai Thom 8 fresh paddy ranged from VND 6,000–6,200 per kg, representing a sharp decline of VND 400 per kg. IR 50404 remained stable at VND 5,400–5,500 per kg; OM 5451 traded at VND 5,800–6,000 per kg; OM 4218 at VND 6,200–6,400 per kg; and OM 34 at VND 5,200–5,400 per kg.

For rice inputs used in processing, Dai Thom 8 raw rice remained stable at VND 9,150–9,350 per kg. Other export-grade raw rice varieties were quoted as follows:

• CL 555: VND 7,950–8,050 per kg

• IR 504: VND 8,000–8,100 per kg

• OM 18: VND 8,900–9,100 per kg

• OM 380: VND 7,500–7,600 per kg

• OM 5451: VND 8,300–8,400 per kg

• Soc Thom: VND 7,500–7,600 per kg

• Finished IR 504 rice was traded at VND 9,500–9,700 per kg.

By-products ranged between VND 7,650–11,500 per kg, with IR 504 broken rice rising by VND 100 per kg to VND 7,650–7,750 per kg, while rice bran traded at VND 10,500–11,500 per kg.

At retail markets, Nang Nhen rice recorded the highest price at VND 28,000 per kg, followed by Huong Lai at VND 22,000 per kg, long-grain Thai fragrant rice at VND 20,000–22,000 per kg, Nang Hoa at VND 21,000 per kg, Taiwan fragrant rice at VND 20,000 per kg, Jasmine rice at VND 13,000–14,000 per kg, standard white rice at VND 16,000 per kg, regular Soc rice at VND 16,000–17,000 per kg, common rice at VND 12,000–13,000 per kg, Thai Soc rice at VND 20,000 per kg, and Japanese rice at VND 22,000 per kg.

While rice prices in major exporting countries have generally softened, agricultural commodities on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) surged on March 6, following warnings from Qatar’s Energy Minister that oil production in the Gulf region could be disrupted due to the ongoing conflict, pushing crude oil prices and broader commodity markets higher.

In remarks to the Wall Street Journal, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed optimism that China would continue increasing purchases of US soybeans, further supporting bullish investor sentiment.

Market participants are now closely watching the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, scheduled for release on March 10. Analysts expect US soybean ending stocks to range between 265 million and 384 million bushels, compared with 350 million bushels reported in February 2026.

Regarding South American supply, traders estimate Brazil’s soybean production at 179.20 million tonnes, slightly below the 180 million tonnes forecast previously released by the USDA. In contrast, consultancy AgroConsult raised its projection for Brazil’s harvest by 850,000 tonnes, to 183.10 million tonnes.

Argentina’s soybean output is expected to decline slightly to 48.10 million tonnes, compared with 48.50 million tonnes previously estimated. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 30% of soybean crops are rated good-to-excellent, up 1 percentage point from the previous week.

Actual trade data indicate that Brazil’s soybean exports in February 2026 reached 7.11 million tonnes, representing a 10.7% year-on-year increase. However, Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) reported that the harvest progress has reached only 42%, approximately 6 percentage points behind last year’s pace.

Corn futures also advanced in line with rising crude oil prices. Analysts expect the USDA to revise Brazil’s corn production upward to 132.90 million tonnes, compared with 131 million tonnes estimated in February 2026. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn output forecast has been slightly reduced by 100,000 tonnes to 52.90 million tonnes.

Brazil has harvested 25% of its first corn crop, in line with 2025 levels, and has planted 65% of the second corn crop area. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintained its corn production forecast at 57 million tonnes, with 7% of the crop harvested and good-to-excellent crop conditions jumping 11 percentage points to 55%.

US corn ending stocks for March 2026 are projected to range between 2.03 and 2.43 billion bushels, compared with 2.13 billion bushels in the previous estimate.

Wheat futures also moved higher due to energy market spillovers and weather concerns. The US Drought Monitor reported that the share of winter wheat areas affected by drought rose by 6 percentage points to 56%, while spring wheat drought exposure increased by 3 percentage points to 19%.

US wheat ending stocks, currently estimated at 931 million bushels, are expected to fall within a range of 856–956 million bushels.

In the global coffee market, prices continued to rise on both major international exchanges. At the latest trading session, Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange posted gains across several delivery contracts. The January 2026 contract rose USD 21 per tonne to USD 3,827 per tonne, while the November 2026 contract increased USD 2 per tonne to USD 3,511 per tonne.

Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange also strengthened. The March 2026 contract rose 4.6 cents/lb to 297.6 cents/lb, while the December 2026 contract gained 3.8 cents/lb to 277.65 cents/lb (1 lb = 0.45 kg).

On the Brazilian exchange, Arabica coffee prices showed mixed performance across delivery months. The March 2026 contract increased 2.75 cents/lb to 380 cents/lb, while the May 2026 contract declined 0.9 cents/lb to 349.5 cents/lb.

In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices on March 7 remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging between VND 95,500 and VND 96,600 per kg in the Central Highlands.

Traders noted that the coffee market continues to be influenced by concerns over logistics disruptions linked to armed conflict in the Middle East, while farmer selling in several major producing countries has slowed.

Although maritime shipping routes from Vietnam to Europe have not been completely disrupted, freight rates have risen sharply. Increasing logistics costs are placing pressure on coffee roasters and importers, making the market more sensitive to supply chain volatility.

In the near term, the coffee market is expected to remain highly sensitive to logistics disruptions associated with Middle East tensions, with price dynamics influenced by both supply–demand fundamentals and global geopolitical developments, alongside slower farmer selling in major producing countries.

According Lao Cai Newspaper

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