Global coffee exports rise in january as Asian shipments surge and overtake South America

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports totaled 12.6 million bags in January 2026, representing a 13.7% year-on-year increase.

Cumulatively, during the first four months of the 2025–2026 coffee year (October 2025–January 2026), global coffee shipments reached 46.4 million bags, up 7.5% compared with 43.2 million bags recorded in the same period of the 2024–2025 crop year.

Green coffee dominates export structure

In January, green coffee accounted for 86.5% of total exports, equivalent to 10.9 million bags, marking a 12.7% increase year on year. By coffee type, shipments of Other Milds arabica and robusta expanded, while Brazilian arabica and Colombian arabica registered declines.

Specifically, green robusta exports reached nearly 5.3 million bags in January, surging 49.1% compared with the same period last year. The increase was primarily driven by Vietnam, whose exports jumped 73.3% to 3.7 million bags.

In addition, India, Indonesia, and Uganda also contributed to the expansion, with their combined exports rising 20.4% to 1.2 million bags.

These gains offset a 25% decline in Brazil’s robusta exports, a trend that has persisted throughout the first four months of the 2025–2026 coffee year.

Exports of Other Milds arabica also increased sharply by 33.8% in January, exceeding 1.9 million bags. Honduras and Nicaragua were the key growth drivers, with export volumes rising 53% and 108%, respectively. The surge largely reflects differences in harvest timing between the current and previous crop years. The 2025–2026 harvest began roughly two months later than usual, shifting export volumes into the current reporting period.

Declines in Colombian and Brazilian arabica

In contrast, Colombian arabica exports fell 19.5% year on year to 1 million bags in January, marking the third consecutive monthly decline following a 25-month period of positive growth. Colombia alone recorded a 22.1% drop to 0.85 million bags, mainly due to tighter domestic supply. Over the past 15 years (2010–2011 to 2024–2025 crop years), an average 86.2% of Colombia’s coffee production has been exported as green coffee beans.

Similarly, exports of Brazilian arabica declined 22.2% in January to 2.7 million bags, marking the 11th consecutive month of negative growth. This contraction was largely driven by a 24.7% decline in Brazil’s arabica exports, which fell to 2.3 million bags. The recent downturn reflects the biennial production cycle of Brazil’s arabica crop, the high base effect following record exports during the 2023–2024 bumper year, and potentially the impact of higher U.S. import tariffs introduced in 2025.

Overall, global arabica exports declined 8.3% year on year in January to 5.6 million bags. As a result, arabica’s share in total green coffee exports during the first four months of the 2025–2026 crop year dropped to 61.1%, down from 66.4% in the same period a year earlier.

Processed coffee exports continue to rise

During the first four months of the 2025–2026 coffee year, green coffee accounted for 85.23% of global coffee exports, while soluble coffee and roasted coffee represented 14.24% and 0.53%, respectively.

Exports of soluble coffee increased 19.6% year on year in January to 1.7 million bags. Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil were the largest exporters, shipping 0.57 million bags, 0.32 million bags, and 0.27 million bags, respectively. Meanwhile, roasted coffee exports also posted strong growth, rising 56% in January to 0.07 million bags.

Asian exports surge, surpassing South America

Following trends observed in previous months, three of the four major coffee-exporting regions recorded export growth in January, while South America was the only region to register a decline.

Exports from Asia and Oceania reached 5.9 million bags, representing a 54.4% year-on-year increase, allowing the region to overtake South America as the world’s leading coffee exporter in January 2026.

This double-digit growth was largely driven by Vietnam, whose exports surged 67% to 4.3 million bags—the highest January export volume on record, surpassing the previous record of 4 million bags set in January 2024 by 7.9%.

Higher output in the 2025–2026 crop year, with market expectations ranging 6–12% above the 2024–2025 season, has been the primary driver behind Vietnam’s record exports.

India and Indonesia also contributed to regional growth, with their combined exports rising 21.6% to 1.4 million bags. Exports from Africa also recorded double-digit growth of 15.3% in January, reaching 1.3 million bags, largely driven by Uganda, whose shipments increased 25.1% to approximately 0.7 million bags.

Uganda’s exports have surged since the mid-2023–2024 coffee year, surpassing the 7–8 million bag threshold for the first time in 2024–2025, reaching 8.3 million bags. This growth has primarily been supported by improved harvest output, which has also fueled export expansion in recent periods. In the 2025–2026 coffee year, Uganda’s production is expected to continue rising, with some estimates suggesting growth exceeding 10%.

Central America expands while South America contracts

Exports from Central America and Mexico rose 33.5% year on year in January to 1.5 million bags. The recent expansion was driven primarily by Honduras and Nicaragua, where exports increased 53% and 101.5%, reaching 0.6 million bags and 0.3 million bags, respectively.

Unlike the delayed start of the previous season, the 2025–2026 coffee harvest began on schedule in October. Typically, there is a 2–3 month lag between the start of harvesting and the first export shipments. As a result, the region—particularly Honduras and Nicaragua—recorded double-digit export growth, reflecting the shift in supply timing between the two crop years.

In contrast, South America was the only region to record declining exports, with shipments falling 21.3% year on year to 4 million bags in January. This marked the 15th consecutive month of contraction, following a 16-month period of sustained growth. The decline was largely driven by Brazil, whose exports dropped 25.5% to just 2.8 million bags.

Brazil’s export slowdown reflects the high base effect from the previous year and the recovery of supply from Indonesia and Vietnam. During the 2023–2024 coffee year, Brazil’s green robusta exports surged to an unusual 9.4 million bags, far exceeding the five-year average of 3.5 million bags (2018–2019 to 2022–2023) as the country helped compensate for global supply shortages.

Consequently, Brazil’s total coffee exports reached a record 50.1 million bags in 2023–2024, up 35.1% from the previous season, compared with a five-year average of 40.9 million bags.

As supply from Indonesia and Vietnam normalizes in the 2024–2025 and 2025–2026 crop years, a decline in Brazil’s exports—and in South America more broadly—has become increasingly inevitable.

Another major producer in the region, Colombia, also recorded a 19.4% drop in exports in January to just over 0.9 million bags. According to the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia, the country’s January coffee output reached only 0.9 million bags, down from nearly 1.4 million bags a year earlier, representing a 34.1% decline.

According to Doanh Nhan Viet Nam

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