Vietnam macro and industry report - 12/2025
- duyenthu.vietdata
- 6 days ago
- 2 min read
Domestic Economic Conditions
The domestic economy continues to post some positive results, with industrial production expanding and manufacturing activity remaining in expansionary territory.
However, these improvements appear largely seasonal and heavily reliant on domestic demand, while external conditions are deteriorating rapidly.
Export weakness has become more synchronized across key markets: shipments to the United States declined for the fourth consecutive month amid tariff pressures and elevated inventories; exports to China fell sharply after several strong months; deliveries to the EU, ASEAN, and Japan also edged lower.
Domestic consumption has lost momentum, with retail sales growth easing to the lowest level in the past year.
The credit and monetary system faces dual pressures from exchange rate movements and tightening liquidity conditions.
The government bond market remains subdued, marked by low auction success rates and rising yields.
Medium- to Long-term Outlook
Despite near-term pressures, Vietnam’s medium- and long-term economic outlook remains positive, underpinned by a stable macroeconomic foundation and substantial room for reform.
Ongoing efforts to accelerate administrative reforms, improve institutional quality, enhance competitiveness, and strengthen investment transparency are key supportive factors.
These reforms are unfolding amid rapid shifts in global trade and geopolitical dynamics, presenting both challenges and opportunities for Vietnam to reposition itself within regional value chains.
A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
B. VIETNAM MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Business performance of enterprises
Domestic production activities
Business environment and operating conditions
External trade performance
Overview and market structure
Export developments by product groups
Export performance of domestic enterprises
Exports to the United States
Domestic consumption trends
State budget and investment developments
Public sector investment
Foreign direct investment (FDI)
C. FINANCIAL MARKETS
Credit system
Government bond market
Corporate bond market
Stock market
D. SECTORAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
Tourism
Transportation and logistics
Steel
Cement
Textile and garment
Fisheries – Pangasius and shrimp
Fertilizers
Rubber
Agricultural commodities – Rice, cashew, pepper, coffee
E. COMMODITY PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS
Exchange rate pairs
Prices of selected international and domestic commodities
International freight rate