Vietnam economic report - Feb 2026: Growth improves significantly, but risks persist

Feb 26
2 min read

January Vietnam economic macro indicators continued to show clearer signs of improvement, particularly in manufacturing and exports. However, underlying risks and the delayed recovery of the domestic private sector (DDI), consumption, and the interest rate environment warrant close monitoring.

The manufacturing sector remained in expansionary territory. PMI rose to 52.5, marking the seventh consecutive month above 50, with improvements seen in output, new orders, and employment. Input inventories declined for the first time since September 2025, suggesting better absorption capacity. Monthly IIP growth also recorded one of its strongest readings in recent years.

Exports reached USD 43.2 billion, while imports hit a record high, reflecting expectations of post-Tet order recovery. Nonetheless, export growth remained largely driven by the FDI sector, while the DDI sector continued to contract, with several industries declining month-on-month. The US decision to reduce reciprocal tariffs on India may narrow Vietnam’s competitive advantage in certain segments.

Consumption increased seasonally but remained cautious, concentrated mainly in essential goods and supported by promotional campaigns.

The exchange rate eased toward the end of the month, though deposit interest rates remained elevated.

The stock market experienced significant volatility—hitting new highs before correcting—highlighting investor optimism tempered by sensitivity to macro developments.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

B. VIETNAM MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Business performance of enterprises (domestic production & business registration)
Import and export developments
General overview
Market structure
Export performance of selected product groups
Domestic consumption trends
State budget and investment situation (Public sector & FDI)