Vietnam fertilizer industry report – 2025 & outlook for 2026

duyenthu.vietdata
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2025 – Key Highlights

Global fertilizer prices surged during the first eight months of 2025 before correcting from mid-August, driven by China’s relaxation of export restrictions and the delayed pass-through of declining input gas prices into market prices.

Industry earnings recorded solid growth in 2025, supported by resilient consumption and margin expansion over the first three quarters. This performance was underpinned by favorable selling prices, sharply lower gas input costs, and the new VAT policy allowing input tax deductibility.

The growth momentum reversed in Q4/2025 as domestic demand softened due to adverse weather conditions and a sharp decline in rice prices; exports weakened; and input gas prices rebounded while domestic fertilizer prices adjusted only modestly.

Competitive pressure intensified from low-priced imported fertilizers, particularly from China and ASEAN countries, while the green agriculture trend continued to drive demand shifts toward organic fertilizers and high-technology NPK products.

2026 outlook:

2026 is likely to mark a rebalancing phase following the exceptionally strong profit cycle of 2025. Profit margins are expected to come under pressure due to the carryover of elevated input gas costs from Q4/2025 and weaker domestic consumption.

A potential reintroduction of China’s fertilizer export restrictions could provide short-term support to export volumes; however, geopolitical risks and unilateral policy actions by major fertilizer-producing countries are expected to remain the key determinants of pricing dynamics and overall industry performance in 2026.

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[VI] FERTILIZER INDUSTRY REPORT - 2025 & Outlook 2026

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TABLE OF CONTENT

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

B. GLOBAL FERTILIZER PRICE TRENDS, DOMESTIC SELLING PRICES AND AVERAGE IMPORT PRICES

C. OVERVIEW OF VIETNAM’S FERTILIZER INDUSTRY