According to GSO's published data, many economic indicators in July and the first 7M in general continued to record high growth compared to the same period last year; thanks to the results of the first months of the year and July 2021 is the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic in many provinces.
However, it is worth noting that the domestic economy is showing clearer signs of negative impacts from fluctuations in the world market. Except for domestic consumption, which is still growing quite well, a number of other pillars (production, exports and foreign investment flows) have begun to show signs of slowing down. Specifically,
Production activities: Some industries showed signs of slowing down significantly compared to the first months of the year: Garment, footwear, fertilizer, wood processing, and steel. Particularly for the beverage industry, except for beer and milk, the production of other beverages also showed signs of slowing down.
Export activities: The country's export in July was estimated at USD 30.6 billion, down 6.8% MoM and low compared to the beginning of the year until now (although still increasing compared to the same period last year). The reason is that exports to China and South Korea have not improved much, while exports to ASEAN, US, and EU are all lower than last month. Especially, inventories of many goods in the US (the largest export market) are at a high level.
The groups of export products that decreased significantly in the month were electronics & computers, fiber, iron and steel, plastic and plastic products, agricultural products in general (except rubber). Particularly, the export situation of cement, vegetables and fruits has improved in July compared to the previous month, but in general, the cumulative 7M-2022 still decreases sharply over the same period
Both disbursed and registered FDI were at low levels compared to other months, and decreased by 36% and 41% respectively compared to the previous month.
In addition, the financial market in the month also recorded (i) strong fluctuations in interbank interest rates and exchange rates; (ii) corporate bond issuance remains bleak; (iii) stock market liquidity dropped to the lowest level since Feb-2021. However, the bright spot is that the market liquidity in the first 10 days of August increased quite well again and was at 15-16 trillion dong/session. However, stock market movements still need to be monitored further, as investors' psychology is still very cautious in the context of the global economy facing inflation, exchange rate & interest rate risks, and many other variables. Other unpredictable numbers are related to geopolitics and the epidemic situation in China.
Source: Vietdata Macro and Industry monthly report - July Edition
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