Vietnam Macro snapshot

VIETNAM ECONOMIC SPOTLIGHT – Q2/2025

 

Resilient growth amid global uncertainty

Vietnam's economy delivered a strong performance in Q2/2025 despite rising global uncertainties following the United States' reciprocal tariff measures. Second-quarter GDP growth accelerated, bringing H1/2025 growth to 7.52%, the highest since 2008. Growth was driven by:

• Exports: +14.5%

• Domestic consumption: +9.3%

• Public investment: +18.2%

• Disbursed FDI: +8.1%

• Industrial production index (IIP): +9.23%

​

Other notable highlights:

• Stock market rally: The VN-Index surged over 28% from its April bottom (post-tariff shock), reaching a 3-year high and ranking among Asia’s best-performing markets.

• Monetary policy remains supportive: Average lending rates for new loans fell by an additional 60–64 basis points in H1; credit growth reached +9.9% year-to-date, aligning with the government's pro-growth stance.

• Corporate bond market regains momentum: Both primary issuance and secondary trading picked up. Maturity pressure eased, debt recovery improved, and firms proactively restructured to optimize capital costs.

• Institutional reform push: Vietnam completed the transition to a new two-tier local government model and passed a series of breakthrough laws and policies, laying the groundwork for long-term economic restructuring and growth.

​

​ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR H2 2025

​

We forecast full-year GDP growth in Vietnam could reach 7.6–7.8%, outperforming projections from major international institutions:

• UOB: 6.9%

• World Bank: 5.8%

• ADB: 6.6%

• OECD: 6.2%

• Maybank: 7.3%

​

Growth momentum is supported by:

A principled agreement with the U.S. capping reciprocal tariffs at 20%, preserving export competitiveness.

Strong public investment drive, active credit expansion, low interest rates, and a broad set of growth-supportive policies by the Government.