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VIETNAM MACRO SNAPSHOT
NOVEMBER 2023

The domestic economy recorded many positive points in November 2023, but difficulties remained:

  • USD/VND exchange rate cooled down, just increasing by +2.95% Ytd ( as of Nov 30,2023).

  • Deposit interest rates and loans of commercial banks continued to decrease under the Government's orientation. Even deposit interest rates at some banks have dropped to record levels in recent years. However, outstanding credit still increases slowly (8.21%Ytd, as of November 22, 2023), and the increase in outstanding debt at some individual banks is mainly to "restructure debt" for existing customers.

  • The corporate bond market is currently experiencing positive developments. (i) The scale of new issuance remains at a relatively good level compared to the first months of the year. (ii), The agreement between several businesses and bondholders on extending the bond term, and/or changing the method of paying bond principal and interest with other assets is going more "smoothly". (iii) The number of corporate bond codes registered for trading on the trading system at HNX continues to increase rapidly, although still lower than expected, this will be a premise for improving the liquidity and transparency of the market. vocational training school in the future.

  • However, maturity pressure is high, liquidity and the ability to pay the principal and interest of many issuing companies are still weak. The list of businesses announcing delays in paying bond principal and interest continues to increase. And the expiration date of Decree 08/2023/ND-CP is approaching.

  • Stock market: VN-index closed the last session of November at 1,096.7 points, up +6.7% compared to the end of October. The total market trading volume in November also increased by 13%MoM. However, it seems that investor psychology is still cautious, the market continuously reversed throughout the month and had sharp declines intermittently. Foreign investors continue to be net sellers.

  • The situation of production, domestic consumption, and export continues to improve due to seasonal factors. However, the increase is not significant

  • Businesses in many industries are still facing difficulties due to: (i) Output has improved but is still slow, and high inventory causes businesses to have difficulty with cash flow. (ii) Financial burdens left over from the previous period. (iii) and export enterprises also face many risks in international trade, in the context of difficult economic conditions and global business health.

  • FDI attraction generally maintains a positive trend. Vietnam still has a certain advantage in attracting foreign investment compared to other countries in the region and neighboring countries (in terms of stability and current political position, attractiveness from the advantages of multilateral and bilateral FTAs, increasing labor quality, large domestic consumption market size...).

  • However, the imposition of the global minimum tax from January 1, 2024 may impact attracting and "retaining" FDI, if Vietnam does not have other accompanying investment promotion policies.

POLICY FOCUS

  • The Law on Real Estate Business (amended) has been approved by the National Assembly, and will take effect from January 1, 2025. However, the amended Land Law has not been approved in this National Assembly session.

  • Decree 08/2023/Decree - Government will expire from December 31, 2023. But according to information at the meeting on November 28, 2023, the Ministry of Finance's opinion is that it will not extend the validity period of some regulations in Decree 65/2022/Decree – Government, except for the regulation that the issuing enterprise is allowed to negotiate with investors to extend the payment term.

  • The Ministry of Finance is proposing to amend Decree 132/2020/Decree - Government in the direction of:: When borrowing from banks, businesses will not need to identify affiliated relationships even though the loan exceeds 25% of equity and accounts for over 50% of the total value of medium and long-term debt. This means that businesses will not be subject to the 30% limit on interest expense deduction.

CPI AVERAGE

(Unit: %YoY_Accumulation to the reporting month compared to the same period last year)

GDP GROWTH BY SECTOR

(Unit: %YoY_Accumulation to the reporting quarter compared to the same period last year)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX (IIP)

Unit: %YoY_Accumulation to the reporting month compared to the same period last year)

IIP BY TIER-2 INDUSTRIES

Unit: %YoY_Accumulation to the reporting month compared to the same period last year)

MONTHLY EXPORT VALUE

(Unit: USD bn)

MONTHLY TRADE BALANCE

(Unit: USD bn)

EXPORT GROWTH BY TYPE OF GOODS

Unit: %YoY, year to date)

TOTAL RETAIL OF CONSUMER GOODS & SERVICES

(Unit: VND tribillion)

REVENUE OF TOUR GUIDE SERVICE

(Unit: VND tribillion)

MONTHLY FDI CAPITAL REGISTERED & DISBURSED

(Unit: USD million)

NEWLY REGISTERED FDI CAPITAL BY PROVINCES

(Unit: USD million, year to date)

NO. OF BUSINESSES REGISTERED TO ENTER THE MARKET

(Unit: enterprise)

BUSINESS REGISTRATION

(Unit: enterprise, year to date)

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