Vietnam Macro snapshot

Key Highlights of Vietnam’s Economy in Q3/2025

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Vietnam’s economy accelerated strongly in Q3/2025, expanding +8.23% YoY, far exceeding forecasts by major international institutions (IMF, World Bank, etc.). This robust performance came despite the U.S. 20% reciprocal tariff taking effect on August 7, 2025, as well as the broader global slowdown driven by new U.S. tax and trade measures and heightened geopolitical tensions worldwide.

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Growth momentum was supported by multiple pillars:

• Manufacturing & processing industry: +10.15% YoY

• Merchandise exports: +18.35% YoY

• Domestic consumption: +10.44% YoY

• Public investment disbursement: +31% YoY

• Private sector activity: +8.2% YoY

• FDI disbursement: +9% YoY

• Service exports (mainly aviation, logistics, tourism): +20.2% YoY

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Key supportive factors

• Low interest-rate environment maintained

• Strong credit growth (+13.37% YTD)

• Accelerated progress of infrastructure projects and public investment disbursements

• Continued positive FDI inflows

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Vietnam remains a standout destination for FDI, even as global investment flows slow or shift direction. This resilience is underpinned by a stable political environment, deep integration commitments, active policy dialogue with foreign business associations, and recent concrete actions to improve administrative procedures—particularly efforts to reduce informal costs—helping reinforce long-term investor confidence.

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Policy developments

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Implementation of Resolution 68-NQ/TW is set to further promote private-sector growth and strengthen the economy’s self-reliance. A notable recent shift is the increasing participation of major domestic private conglomerates in large-scale national infrastructure and strategic technology projects—something rarely seen in the past—reflecting an evolution in policy thinking.

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E-government initiatives are being deployed more broadly, helping reduce costs, enhance governance efficiency, and improve overall economic productivity.

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Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to refine and introduce new policy frameworks to support the development of capital markets, digital assets, carbon-credit trading, and digital technology services— laying the groundwork for restructuring the growth model in the new development phase.

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Q4/2025 Growth Outlook – Strong Domestic Momentum, but External Risks Remain Elevated

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Economic growth in Q4 is expected to remain favorable, supported by several domestic factors: an accommodative monetary policy stance, low interest-rate environment, expanding credit supply, resilient household consumption, and accelerated disbursement of both public investment and private-sector capital.

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However, achieving the full-year growth target of 8.3–8.5% is considered challenging due to several constraints:

• At the provincial level, GDP in most localities remains well below their annual targets after the first three quarters, with the exception of Phu Tho, Quang Ngai, Tay Ninh, Dong Nai, Lai Chau, Lang Son, and Dien Bien.

• By sector, the manufacturing and processing industry continues to fall short of its growth target, while Q4 exports may face headwinds from external uncertainties. Although short-term risks are somewhat mitigated—given the limited time left in 2025 and improved year-end orders since September—exporters still face rising logistics costs and higher compliance burdens related to CBAM, labor standards, and rules-of-origin requirements across supply chains. These factors continue to compress profit margins for exporting enterprises.

• Natural disaster risks: Severe and consecutive storms and floods in the Northern and North Central regions have caused significant damage, disrupting production, agriculture, consumption, and particularly the pace of infrastructure-related public investment disbursement in affected areas.