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Upon the reopening of China's economy, how will Vietnam's economy look?

Experts offer many perspectives on the impact of China's reopening on the commodity market, the global economy, and the Vietnamese economy.


At the Talk show Financial Street (The Finance Street Talk Show) on VTV8, Dr. Ho Quoc Tuan, Senior Lecturer at the University of Bristol, made an assessment of the impact of China's opening of the economy on Vietnam's economy and the stock market.


According to him, there are many moves by China from increasing credit, introducing supportive policies for real estate, general support for production, and especially the issuance of a new batch of government bonds for infrastructure construction and investment showing clear signals in the direction of economic promotion.


As for equities, according to JPMorgan's analysis, Southeast Asian markets will move similarly to a "bungee jump" in 2023, plunging before surging in the second half of the year.


In general, after a difficult period, there will be a bright period, Mr. Ho Quoc Tuan said that from 2024, the world economy will recover well, and thus, businesses in the consumer goods group in Vietnam will have a can take advantage of 2023 for restructuring, M&A to prepare for a new period. Shares of building material manufacturers are also getting cheaper and will bounce back at some point.


"If investors have a foresight, beyond 2024, they can buy those stocks and hold them for a long time," Dr. Ho Quoc Tuan recommended.


As for Mr. Tran Minh Tuan, Vice Chairman of Smart Invest Securities Joint Stock Company (AAS), it is forecasted that when the Chinese economy reopens, there will be a boom in demand for essential goods and then the crop stocks will explode, livestock, and aquatic products will grow. At the same time, the tourism, hotel, aviation, and transportation industries will grow when the routes with China reopen.


Positive effects on the global economy


Analyzing the impact of China's reopening, Dr. Ho Quoc Tuan pointed out that this is immediately reflected in the prices of some materials such as copper if China's positive growth will help boost the global economy.


However, there are still risks to the world economy. If the prices of some important raw materials are pushed up quickly due to the recovery process of China, typically crude oil, it will have a complicated impact on controlling inflation in countries, especially the US and Europe. Europe. Dr. Ho Quoc Tuan also assessed that global inflation will continue to trend but at a slow pace.


Mr. Tran Minh Tuan also said that the opening of China will help reduce global inflation. According to Mr. Tran Minh Tuan, China's trade turnover reaches more than 600 billion USD and has a huge growth every year.


Impact on Vietnam's economy


Dr. Ho Quoc Tuan expects that the price of Vietnam's raw materials will increase when China reopens, but it will not increase immediately, it will take a while because the firms in this nation have significant levels of inventory.


"In the past few months, Vietnam, we have been affected not because of China's economic opening or the world's general problem, but we are affected by the policy side for the real estate market. Currently, those factors, the last months of the year are relaxing and will create short-term momentum for the market, but if you look at the next three months or six months, the uncertainty about The policy is still there, still in the process of dismantling," said Ho Quoc Tuan.


Industry groups benefit


Group of stocks related to real estate in industrial zones or possibly related to enterprises providing support services to listed FDI enterprises.


Consumer goods groups in Vietnam, if they do well, will take advantage of this period to acquire or conduct restructuring, and will benefit greatly from 2024 onwards.


Source: Journal of Economics and Forecasting



VIETNAM MACRO AND INDUSTRY REPORT - DECEMBER 2022


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