Recently, the UK's independent Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis (CEBR) published the 14th annual World Economic Outlook Report and the World Economic League Table. - WELT). Accordingly, CEBR forecasts that Vietnam's economic scale will leap in the next 14 years.
According to data from the General Statistics Office, the scale of GDP at current prices in 2023 is estimated to reach 10,221.8 trillion VND, equivalent to 430 billion USD. With this result, Vietnam's economic scale in 2023 will rank 34th according to CEBR's rankings.
The report states that with GDP increasing by 5.05% and inflation by 3.25%, Vietnam's economy in 2023 will grow strongly and inflation will remain at a low level. That is, there is no trade-off between growth and inflation like many other countries.
The increase in consumer prices in 2023 is also lower than the 10-year average inflation rate, which is 3.8%. This creates space in Vietnam's monetary management policy.
Along with that, the unemployment rate fell last year helping boost consumer spending; The Government debt ratio in 2023 is expected to be 35% of GDP, down about 1.3 percentage points compared to 2022.
Not only that, Vietnam also benefits from the shift in the global supply chain. The proportion of Vietnamese goods exported to the US increased by nearly 2% since US-China trade tensions escalated in 2018. This was also supplemented by strong FDI inflows from other Asian economies, including China.
By 2024, CEBR forecasts that Vietnam's scale is expected to be at position 33 on the WELT rankings, up 1 level compared to the 2023 report, with GDP scale at current prices reaching 462 billion USD.
Notably, CEBR's report assesses that Vietnam's economic scale ranking may increase rapidly in the future. Specifically, Vietnam will rise to 24th position by 2033, with an economic scale of 1,050 billion USD.
By 2038, with an expected GDP scale of 1,559 billion USD, Vietnam will rise to the 21st position, surpassing other economies in the ASEAN region such as Thailand (1,313 billion USD), and Singapore (896 billion USD). ), Philippines (1,536 billion USD) to enter the group of 25 largest economies in the world.
According to CEBR, with the advantage of a large and young population, Vietnam has the opportunity to surpass most ASEAN countries economically such as Singapore, Thailand, or Malaysia, and become a high-income country by 2045.
CEBR forecasts an average annual GDP growth rate of 6.7% in the period 2024-2028. This number will be 6.4% in the next 9 years.
In the ASEAN region, besides Vietnam, the Philippines is also considered a country with impressive growth, possibly reaching 23rd position by 2038. According to CERB, Vietnam and the Philippines are outstanding examples for the group of countries Countries are expected to improve their rankings thanks to repositioning in the global value chain, internal reforms, increased labor productivity, and public and private investment.
(Theo An ninh tien te)