Middle East conflict and rising logistics costs could reshape U.S. seafood consumption

(vasep.com.vn) Rising oil prices and escalating freight costs could reshape seafood consumption patterns in the United States. Shrimp is likely to face the greatest pressure, while pangasius, surimi, and other competitively priced seafood products may be better positioned to sustain demand.

Escalating tensions and conflicts in the Middle East are triggering significant volatility in global energy and transportation markets. Oil prices have surged, while shipping and marine insurance costs are climbing. At the same time, consumer sentiment in the United States—the world’s largest seafood import market—appears increasingly cautious. In this context, a key question emerges: how will U.S. seafood demand evolve if geopolitical tensions persist?

Energy and freight shocks ripple into the seafood market

Recent developments in the Middle East are generating a substantial cost shock for global trade. One of the most critical flashpoints is the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic maritime corridor through which roughly 20% of the world’s traded oil passes.

In early March 2026, Brent crude briefly surged to nearly USD 120 per barrel before easing to around USD 92 per barrel by March 10, 2026. Meanwhile, war risk insurance premiums for commercial vessels operating in the Middle East have risen sharply.

Maritime transport data indicate that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined noticeably over a short period due to heightened security risks, prompting many shipping lines to adjust routes or impose additional risk surcharges. Container shipping rates have also begun to rise again. As of March 5, 2026, the global container freight index increased by 3% to USD 1,958 per 40-foot container.

Air cargo—an essential channel for fresh seafood products—has also been significantly affected. According to estimates from international logistics analysts, the conflict has reduced global air cargo capacity by approximately 12%.

For the seafood sector, these developments are particularly critical. Logistics costs already account for a substantial share of export pricing, especially for frozen products or time-sensitive shipments such as fresh tuna. As fuel prices and insurance premiums rise, the costs of refrigerated container transport, air freight, and cold-chain storage inevitably increase.

The U.S. market’s heavy reliance on imports

The United States remains the world’s largest seafood consumer market and relies heavily on imported supply. Approximately 80% of seafood consumed in the U.S. is imported, while per capita consumption exceeds 19 pounds annually. Total U.S. imports of edible seafood amount to roughly 6.3 billion pounds per year. This high level of import dependence makes U.S. seafood demand particularly sensitive to external cost shocks.

Retail data from early 2026 reveal a notable trend: seafood prices are rising faster than consumption volumes. In January 2026, frozen seafood sales increased by 4.5% to USD 860.7 million, but volume declined by 3.8%. Fresh seafood sales rose 3.7% to USD 856.6 million, while consumption volumes remained nearly flat. This pattern suggests that U.S. consumers are still spending on seafood but are becoming increasingly price sensitive.

Shrimp likely to face the greatest impact

Among major seafood categories in the U.S. market, shrimp appears to be the most price-sensitive. Retail data from January 2026 show that fresh shrimp prices increased by 17.3%, while consumption volume fell by 18.4%. Frozen shrimp prices rose 16%, accompanied by a 10.7% decline in volume. These figures indicate that when retail prices rise sharply, U.S. consumers tend to cut back on shrimp purchases more quickly than on many other seafood products.

In 2025, the United States imported approximately 795,641 metric tons of shrimp, up 2% year-on-year. However, if transportation costs continue to increase and are passed through to retail prices, shrimp demand—particularly for premium products—could face the strongest pressure.

During periods of economic uncertainty, consumers often shift toward more affordable protein options. This dynamic may create opportunities for certain seafood categories. In 2025, the United States imported about 91.9 million pounds of frozen yellowfin tuna, while exports of frozen surimi blocks reached roughly 145,000 metric tons. Products such as canned tuna, surimi, pangasius, and other whitefish typically maintain more stable demand during economic downturns. If living costs in the U.S. continue to rise, demand may gradually shift from premium seafood products toward more affordable alternatives.

Retail channels may gain relative resilience

Another important factor is the divergence between consumption channels. The restaurant and foodservice sector tends to be highly sensitive to economic fluctuations. When living costs increase, consumers often reduce dining out.

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in January 2026, prices for food away from home increased by 4.0%, while food at home rose by 2.1%. This indicates that the cost of eating out is rising faster than the cost of preparing meals at home. If this trend persists, seafood demand in the restaurant sector could weaken, while retail sales and at-home consumption may remain comparatively stable.

Vietnam’s seafood exports to the U.S.

Vietnam’s seafood exports to the United States reached USD 209 million in the first two months of 2026, down slightly by 3% year-on-year compared with the same period in 2025.

Shrimp remained the largest export category, accounting for nearly USD 60 million, equivalent to 28.7% of total exports, although turnover declined sharply by 22% due to the impact of anti-dumping duties. Tuna exports totaled over USD 42 million, down 15.1% amid the effects of Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) regulations, while pangasius exports reached approximately USD 37.9 million, decreasing by 5.3%.

According to VASEP

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