While the export price of rice from Thailand and Pakistan is falling sharply, Vietnamese rice remains at a record high for the past 10 years.
Rice export prices hit record highs
In the first days of June, rice export prices on the Asian market had opposite movements in the four largest exporting countries. Specifically, compared with the beginning of May, for the standard product of 5% broken rice, Pakistan's product was only 488 USD/ton, down about 50 USD. Thai rice is 494 USD/ton, down about 10 USD. India's rice increased slightly to 453 USD/ton. Notably, Vietnam's 5% broken rice stood firmly at 498 USD/ton, the highest in the world.
Rice, along with sugar, coffee, etc. is expected to increase in price due to limited supply shortly due to the occurrence of the El Nino phenomenon. This trend has been around since last week when the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared "El Nino has appeared". Immediately after that, the world and Vietnam coffee markets increased sharply, surpassing all records. However, the world rice market has different developments than forecast. Instead of rising, the price of rice fell slightly again.
Explaining this phenomenon, some businesses said there are 2 main reasons. Firstly, because rice is an essential commodity, importers have taken advantage of importing goods from previous months; especially in April and May, when Asian countries are in the midst of a great harvest and large output. At that time, the price of rice in some countries reached a record high, the price of 5% broken rice was over 500 USD/ton. The price of Vietnamese rice also increased, but at an "acceptable" level for many markets, which pushed the volume of rice exports to increase sharply in the first 5 months of the year. Second, currently in Vietnam as well as in other countries, rice production is entering a new planting season. About 2 months from now, Vietnam will reap the largest rice production of the year. Therefore, importers are waiting for better prices, so they are not in a hurry to sign new contracts.
For Vietnam, data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development shows that rice exports in May 2023 were estimated at 1 million tons, worth $489 million. Accumulated in the first 5 months of the year reached nearly 3.9 million tons, worth more than 2 billion USD, up 41% in volume and 49% in value compared to the same period in 2022. Worth mentioning, the export price of Vietnamese rice is average. average export price of 517 USD/ton, the highest average export price in the past 10 years. Traditional markets such as the Philippines, China, Indonesia, etc. have all increased their imports sharply, making rice farmers this year "triple" when the crop is right, and the price and cost of fertilizer also dropped sharply from 40 - 50%. Enjoying great joy, farmers eagerly prepare the new crop. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, by mid-May, the whole country had sown 4.25 million hectares of rice, equaling 98.5% over the same period.
(Bao Thanh Nien)