At many other banks, although the non-performing loans ratio on the balance sheet was still controlled below 3%, the debt ratio to pay attention to (debt group 2) increased sharply.
At the end of the first quarter of 2023, it seems that the difficulties of the economy have been reflected in the balance sheets of banks. Those who have been used to the non-performing loans ratio "around 1%" for a long time will be quite surprised when there are 6/27 listed banks with a non-performing loans ratio (NPL) above 3%, especially in one application. taste up to 23%; 4/27 non-performing loans units are approximately 3%…
According to data from the General Statistics Office, GDP in the first quarter of 2023 was estimated to increase by 3.32% over the same period last year, a low increase in the past 13 years, except for the low increase in the first quarter of 2020 due to the affected economy. by the Covid-19 pandemic. The data reflects that business and production activities are facing difficulties due to a decrease in the number of orders in the context of economic stagnation in the US and Europe, even in a recession.
DEBTS NEED TO BE CAREFULLY GROWTH
Domestically, to control inflation and respond to external shocks, from 2022, monetary policy will be gradually tightened. In addition, the unprecedented confidence crisis in the corporate bond market has negatively affected the production and business conditions of enterprises, especially the real estate sector.
According to experts, the factors supporting growth include (i) motivation from public investment; (ii) FDI disbursement is expected to be equivalent to 2022; (iii) positive domestic consumption (benefiting from Chinese visitors); and (iv) The State Bank eases monetary policy, supporting economic growth.
Among the above four factors, public investment disbursement has not met expectations, FDI disbursement is a variable that is difficult to predict. Not to mention, the risk of economic recession in the US and EU is the factor that restrains GDP growth when export orders decline sharply. The corporate bond market faces huge maturity pressure throughout 2023 and has not been able to regain investor confidence, despite numerous efforts by the regulator.
The economic difficulties are also on the banking system. Although overall, the NPL ratio of the whole system is under control at less than 3%, non-performing loans in some banks are already at an alarming level.
In addition, the updated financial statements of the first quarter of 2023 of 27 listed banks showed that debt to pay attention (group 2) increased by 43% over the same period last year. The ratio of outstanding loans in groups 2-5/total outstanding increased sharply from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 4.4% in the first quarter of 2023. There were 8 banks with the highest non-performing loans growth in the first quarter of 2023; Among them, only 2 units maintained a non-performing loans ratio on the balance sheet below 3% (1.76% and 2.02% respectively).
A bank listed on the stock exchange has won the "champion title" of non-performing loans in the first quarter when, as of March 31, 2023, its group 1 debt decreased by 10.3% compared to the beginning of the year, down to 32,778 billion dongs. Group 2 debt (debts to pay attention to) increased by 51% to 3,953.6 billion dongs. Meanwhile, group 3 debt (substandard debt) increased by 147.4% to 2,542.5 billion dongs. Group 4 debt (doubtful debt) increased by 18.7% to VND 5,043.5 billion. Group 5 debt (debts likely to lose capital) increased by 3.1%, at nearly VND 3,383 billion. Therefore, this bank has a total non-performing loan of nearly VND 10,969 billion (up 28.2% compared to the beginning of the year) and this on-balance sheet non-performing loans ratio is 23%.
The position of "runner-up" in non-performing loans belongs to another bank leading the private sector, with the non-performing loans ratio on the balance sheet reaching 6.24% at the end of the first quarter, up 0.51% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. In addition, the non-performing loans ratio at 4 other banks is 4.01%, respectively; 4.3%; The next 2 units are approximately 3.65%; 3 units have an on-balance sheet non-performing loans ratio of approximately 3%.
At many other banks, although the non-performing loans ratio on the balance sheet was still controlled below 3%, the debt ratio to pay attention to (debt group 2) increased sharply.
For example, MSB, in the first quarter of 2023, group 2 loans increased by 146% compared to the beginning of the year, to VND 4,337 billion, an increase of about VND 2,700 billion; in which, only 2 customers, Novaland and Hoa Binh Construction Group, contributed VND 1,150 billion and VND 545 billion; Group 2 debt of small and medium enterprises (SME) and individual customers is VND 450 billion and VND 555 billion, respectively.
Not only banks with high rates of real estate and construction loans are subject to high non-performing loan pressure. ACB, one of the banks that are rated as having the healthiest asset quality in the system, with a non-performing loans ratio controlled below 1% in the first quarter of 2023, but the debt of groups 3 and 4 increased sharply. ACB is the bank that says no to corporate bonds; Real estate and construction loans account for a low proportion of the credit structure.
In Q1/2023, ACB recorded a strong increase in group 3 debt, up 94% QoQ (QoQ), up 214% YoY (YoY), and group 4 debt (+149% QoQ, +20% QoQ). YoY); the bank's non-performing loans ratio in the first quarter of 2023 increased to 0.94% (up 20 basis points compared to the beginning of the year); the NPL coverage ratio reached 116%.
According to analysts, the reason why ACB's debt in groups 3 and 4 increased sharply was due to the gloomy situation of export activities, and the scarcity of orders, which affected the cash flow of many businesses, leading to difficulties in payment settlement of loans with banks.
Early predicting the negative impact of the domestic and international macro context on the asset quality of banks, many units have stepped up provisioning for risks from the third quarter of 2022.
In 2022, ViettinBank's provisioning expenses were accelerated in the third quarter and maintained at an average level in the fourth quarter, the non-performing loans coverage ratio reached 188%, and the non-performing loans write-off rate reached 1.7%. and was the highest in the bank's history thanks to the large provisioning. Provisioning for risks continued to be promoted in the first quarter of 2023 when the provisioning expense for this quarter was at VND6,723 billion, up 21.5% compared to the previous quarter and up 52% compared to the same period last year. However, along with the increase in provisioning, ViettinBank's non-performing loans ratio also increased from 1.24% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 1.28% in the first quarter of 2023, making the non-performing loans coverage ratio accordingly decrease to 173%.
In the current volatile context, some banks choose a cautious strategy, accepting low growth to manage risks, such as VietcomBank. In the first quarter of 2023, Vietcombank's credit growth was the lowest in recent years when Vietcombank's total credit in the first quarter of 2023 increased by 2.5% since the beginning of the year to 1,185 billion dongs, the lowest growth rate. in the past 5 years; total outstanding loans to customers increased thanks to loans to corporate customers (up 5.4% since the beginning of the year), while retail loans remained unchanged, resulting in retail sales from 47.2% in 2022 will decrease to 46.1%.
At a meeting with analysts of securities companies on May 19, 2023, a representative of Vietcombank said that the bank had traded off retail lending growth to focus on risk management, especially home loans in unfavorable market conditions. In the first quarter, Vietcombank's deposits increased by 3.1% compared to the beginning of the year, higher than the industry's 0.8% and credit growth of the bank. Accordingly, the net LDR ratio (lending/depositing) decreased from 92.1% in 2022 to 91.6% in Q1/2023...
(24hmoney)