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Global gasoline demand growth could fall by 50% this year

According to consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, global gasoline demand growth could halve in 2024, putting pressure on the profits of oil refiners.

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According to consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, global gasoline demand growth could halve in 2024, pressuring refiners' profits, due to the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) in the US. China and the US as well as consumption return to normal after a strong post-pandemic increase in 2023.

With the lowest increase since 2020, demand could rise by 340,000 bpd, to 26.5 million bpd this year, compared with a rise of 700,000 bpd last year, when China was close to reaching the peak in fuel demand for transportation activities and the US passed the peak.

According to Woodmac analyst Sushant Gupta, EV usage in the US and China is increasing. This year, gasoline demand in China will only increase by 10,000 barrels/day, as EVs become more popular.

Meanwhile, consulting firm Rystad Energy forecasts global gasoline demand at about 26 million barrels/day in 2024, an increase of about 300,000 barrels/day, compared to an increase of 700,000 barrels/day in 2023, when Consumption increased sharply after the pandemic.

China, once the driving force behind global gasoline demand, is expected to account for more than half of EV sales this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

According to forecasts by the research department of the China National Petroleum Corporation, gasoline consumption in the world's largest crude oil importer could increase by about 1.3%, or about 2 million tons, to 165 million tons. .1 million tons (3.8 million barrels/day) this year.

The research arm of China's largest oil refiner Sinopec estimates gasoline demand will increase about 1.7%, or about 3 million tons, to 182 million tons this year.

The IEA predicts that as falling prices increase demand, the proportion of EVs in total vehicle sales in China this year could reach 45%, in Europe it will be about 25% and in the US it will be over 11%.



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