Fishing output in October increased to the highest level since the beginning of the year thanks to the relief of congestion in the previous months of social distancing policy. The demand for seafood imports from the US & EU markets is expected to remain high, while Asian markets (such as China, Japan, and ASEAN) are not very favorable.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FISHERIES INDUSTRY IN 10-2021
In October, seafood processing & export in general recovered more positively than previous concerns.
The catch of pangasius, shrimp, ... increased by 65-75% compared to T09, and even the highest since the beginning of the year until now. The reason is that during the time of social distancing, processing activities were delayed, wholesale activities in large consuming areas (such as Ho Chi Minh)... were also affected, so raw fish & shrimp were over-sized but not harvested.
The export value of the whole seafood industry also prospered with an increase of 42.3% compared to September, an increase in most of the main export markets and products (although still lower than October 2020). Export prices are also favorable.
Due to the gradual recovery of domestic demand and more favorable export activities after the quarantine period, the price of raw seafood in general and raw fish and shrimp in particular in the Mekong Delta has increased. Specifically, the price of raw pangasius until the beginning of T11 increased by ~1,500 VND/kg compared to the end of September. Currently, the price of pangasius is at 22.5-23.5 thousand VND/kg (refer to 0.7-0.8 kg/fish in Dong Thap), this is also the highest price since the beginning of the year.
According to VASEP, the export value of pangasius in T10 has increased by 66.7% compared to T09, but still decreased by ~20% compared to T10-2020. However, the export situation to the two major markets China & EU has not shown any signs of improvement.
The export volume in the last 2 months of the year is forecasted that even with improvement, it is difficult to recover strongly, because the shortage of raw materials is expected to last until the end of Q1 2022 due to the sharp decrease in the farming area and the number of fingerlings from early Q2 and not much progress. However, pangasius prices on the world market are expected to continue to stay high, which could be a compensating factor for businesses' difficulties.
Shrimp exports rebounded strongly in T10, especially black tiger shrimp. Specifically, shrimp export value in T10-2021 increased by 37.8% compared to T09, but still decreased slightly by 1.5% compared to T10-2020. In which, black tiger shrimp alone increased by 64.1% compared to the previous month, reaching 76.7 million USD, this is the highest export level in nearly 3 years.
Accumulated from the beginning of the year to the end of October, shrimp export value maintained a positive growth momentum (+2.1%) thanks to positive increases in exports to the US and EU. While exports to China & Hong Kong still decreased (-24.8%)
However, a positive signal is that consumption demand in the European and American markets increases, especially the need to stock up on food to welcome the upcoming Christmas, along with the advantages from the EVFTA will create favorable conditions for customers. advantages and competitiveness for Vietnamese shrimp products. However, the problem of shortage of raw materials for export processing is still a common problem of seafood industries.
INDUSTRY FORECAST FOR THE LAST 2 MONTHS OF 2021
Demand from US & EU markets is expected to remain high, while Asian markets (such as China, Japan, ASEAN) may not be favorable. In addition, China is maintaining control of COVID-19 on packaging and transportation of frozen and live seafood of Vietnam. Therefore, it is likely that Vietnam's seafood exports to the Chinese market will continue to decline until the end of the year
On the other hand, the recovery momentum may be restrained due to the lack of raw materials, due to the sharp decrease in the farming area during the time of social distancing. In addition, currently, the epidemic prevention and control work of seafood enterprises in the Mekong Delta is in a rather stressful state due to signs of disease outbreaks and outbreaks in some provinces, especially localities with TB workers. Many repatriation activities will partly affect production and export activities of enterprises when they have just recovered.
Source: Extracted from Vietdata's November 2021 Fisheries Report