The results of the SBV's survey on business trends in the first quarter of 2023 showed that the credit balance of the entire credit institution system is expected to increase by 4% on average in the first quarter of 2023 and by 13.7% in 2023.
Capital mobilization of the whole credit institution system is expected to increase by an average of 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023 and by 10% in 2023, adjusted down by 1.8 percentage points compared to the expectation in the previous survey period.
Credit institutions forecast that customers' demand for banking services will grow positively in the first quarter of 2023 but increase at a slower rate in 2023 compared to 2022. The demand for loans is expected to increase more than the demand for deposits and payments.
According to the assessment of credit institutions, the demand for loans, payment services, and cards and deposits of customers in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 2022 continues to improve but has not reached the expected level.
The demand for loans has been identified to be the most improved, especially the borrowing needs of businesses.
At the end of the fourth quarter, 42.5% of credit institutions considered the total demand to be high (mainly focusing on the demand for loans), 2.8% of the credit institutions considered it low and 54.7% of the credit institutions said that at a normal level. Many credit institutions believe that the situation of bad debt handling in the fourth quarter has improved, but not as expected, and will continue to improve slightly in 2023.
Credit institutions are cautious when forecasting business situations in the coming time
Forecasting business activities in 2023, credit institutions are more cautious in the coming time with 56.4-75.4% of credit institutions expecting business to improve in the first quarter and the whole year of 2023, but the extent lower expectation of improvement compared to 2022. 95.3% of credit institutions expect positive profit growth in 2023 compared to 2022, 2.8% of credit institutions expect negative profit growth, and 1.9% expected profits do not change.
The survey results also show that the business situation of many credit institutions in the fourth quarter of 2022 has improved better with the percentage of credit institutions that see an improvement of 70.9%, higher than the previous quarter (63.8%) and expectations (70.4%).
Profit before tax is considered to continue to grow but has not reached the expected level. Generally in 2022, 80% of credit institutions think that the overall business situation will improve compared to 2021, and 87% of credit institutions estimate that pre-tax profit in 2022 will grow positively compared to 2021, besides, there are still 9.3% of credit institutions estimated negative growth in profit.
Regarding the factors that affect the business situation of the banking system, "competition from other credit institutions" continues to be assessed as the most worrying factor that may affect the business situation of credit institutions in the fourth quarter, of 2022 and is expected to be in 2023.
Meanwhile, the factors "demand of the economy for the company's products and services" along with "customer's business and financial conditions" continue to be selected as key objective factors to help improve the situation in 2022.
“Credit policy, interest rate and exchange rate of the State Bank” is assessed by credit institutions as the most important positive factor, followed by “customer’s business and financial conditions” and “demand of the economy for the company's products and services".
In 2023, credit institutions expect all objective factors to have a more positive impact than in 2022, of which "customer's business and financial conditions" is expected to be a positive factor to help improve the business situation of credit institutions.
(Business & Enterprises)
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Data set of 30 commercial banks in Vietnam (Quarterly)
Data set of 30 commercial banks in Vietnam (Yearly)