SUMMARY

Q2/2026, growth momentum continued to be reinforced by production, exports, and investment; however, the quality of recovery remained uneven, with short-term risks shifting toward cost, financing, and trade compliance factors. Vietnam’s economy sustained a strong expansion pace, with 1H2026 GDP growth at 8.18% YoY, driven primarily by the industrial and construction sectors alongside exports and investment. FDI inflows continued to expand, concentrating in high-tech segments such as semiconductors, AI, and data centers, while private investment improved but remained largely led by large corporations.

Nevertheless, growth fell short of expectations and the recovery remained fragmented. The FDI sector continued to lead export performance, whereas the domestic private sector (DDI) and traditional industries recovered at a slower pace. Manufacturing activity stayed in expansionary territory (PMI above 50), though order momentum warrants close monitoring as part of the growth may be attributable to input stockpiling. On the domestic demand side, consumption increased in nominal terms, but real purchasing power showed limited improvement amid inflationary pressures.

System liquidity has stabilized, yet the cost of capital remains elevated, posing ongoing pressure on businesses—particularly SMEs and highly leveraged firms. Meanwhile, the widening trade deficit in 1H has heightened FX risk and demand for foreign currency.

Looking ahead to 2H2026, the key challenge is no longer generating growth momentum, but sustaining a high growth rate while managing macroeconomic imbalances. Divergence is expected to persist, with the FDI sector and large enterprises continuing to drive growth, while domestic firms—especially SMEs—face mounting pressures from funding costs, logistics, and increasingly stringent trade compliance requirements.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. Executive Summary

B. Policy Highlights

C. Trade Remedy Updates by Country

D. VIETNAM MACROECONOMY

Vietnam Economic Overview – 1H2026
Business Activity (Domestic Production & Business Registration)
Domestic Consumption
Import–Export Dynamics
Investment & State Budget (Public Sector & FDI)
Selected Local Economic Indicators

E. FINANCIAL MARKETS

Banking System & Credit
Government Bonds
Corporate Bonds
Equity Market

F. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Insurance
Power
Oil & Gas & Petrochemicals
Tourism
Transportation & Logistics
Steel
Cement
Textiles & Garments
Seafood – Pangasius/Shrimp
Animal Feed & Meat Processing
Fertilizers
Wood & Wood Products
Rubber
Agricultural Commodities – Rice/Cashew/Coffee/Pepper

G. COMMODITY PRICES & FX MOVEMENTS

Key Currency Pairs
Domestic & International Commodity Prices
Global Freight Rates

H. APPENDIX – Vietnam Merchandise Trade & Key Partners

Appendix 1: Export Scale & Growth by Product and Economic Sector
Appendix 2: Bilateral Trade between Vietnam and Major Partners
— United States, China, EU, ASEAN, South Korea, Japan, and the Middle East

Vietnam-Indonesia bilateral trade is expected to reach 15 billion USD by 2028

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