SUMMARY

Price Dynamics: Establishing a New Baseline

Global: The market is experiencing pronounced divergence; steel prices in the U.S. remain elevated while China’s recovery is gradual, widening regional price gaps.
Domestic: Local steel prices have surged, reaching the highest level in the past three years. However, this increase is largely a pass-through to offset persistently high raw material and transportation costs.

Production & Consumption: The Return of Major Players

Production: Industry-wide supply capacity has expanded significantly, driven by the commissioning of major new projects (Dung Quat 2 and newly built steel pipe plants).
Domestic consumption: Continues to serve as the primary pillar, supported by strong demand for construction steel, HRC, and steel pipes. Notably, competitive pressure from low-priced Chinese steel has shown clear signs of easing.
Exports: Have officially ended a five-quarter consecutive decline. Growth is primarily driven by key markets such as ASEAN, the United States, and India, with a notable rebound in the HRC segment.

Outlook & Challenges

Positive factors: Domestic demand is expected to remain robust, supported by peak construction activity and accelerated public investment disbursement. New trade defense measures on imported HRC will provide more effective protection for domestic producers.
Key risks:
- Export markets: New tariff barriers in the U.S. and the tightening roadmap of duty-free quotas in the EU/UK (effective from July 2026) will pose significant challenges for exporters.
- Profit margins: May come under pressure as input material costs and logistics expenses rise faster than finished steel prices.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

B. GLOBAL STEEL MARKET

C. GLOBAL & DOMESTIC STEEL PRICE TRENDS

Iron ore and coking coal prices
Construction steel prices in China and the United States
FOB coking coal prices at Australian ports
Correlation between selected domestic steel prices and global HRC price trends
Reference prices for D6 CB240 wire rod and D10 CB300 rebar across selected brands

D. VIETNAM STEEL MARKET OVERVIEW

E. APPENDICES

An industrial province in the North, replacing Binh Duong, attracts the largest number of migrants