SUMMARY

Vietnam Steel Industry – 2025 Review & 2026 Outlook

2025 – Domestic demand as the main growth driver, exports weaken

Domestic consumption continued to serve as the primary growth engine, offsetting a sharp contraction in exports. Steel prices remained depressed for most of the year and only showed a more visible recovery from late Q3, particularly in December.

Steel production output reached a record 55.3 million tonnes (+9.8% YoY), led by flat steel products (+17.6% YoY), supported by strong domestic demand and new capacity coming onstream, notably Dung Quat 2. In contrast, the commodity steel segment faced intense competitive pressure, resulting in constrained margins; production declined in Q4.
Exports contracted sharply in both volume (-20.3% YoY) and export prices (-8.4% YoY), pushing export value to a five-year low. Most key markets recorded significant declines—EU (-27.4% YoY) and the US (-51.7% YoY)—due to tariff pressures and tighter quotas. Only ASEAN, India, and Australia maintained growth. By product, exports of HRC, coated steel, and construction steel fell steeply, while steel pipes and CRC remained resilient.
Domestic sales surged +25.7% YoY, accounting for nearly 84% of total consumption, supported by lower import pressure and trade remedy measures. Steel imports declined markedly, particularly from China and India.

2026 Outlook – Overall bias remains toward a more challenging scenario

Export prospects are expected to remain under pressure as trade barriers intensify and market access to the US and EU continues to narrow amid rising protectionism and the implementation of CBAM. While ASEAN and the Middle East still offer growth potential, competition is set to intensify, particularly from Chinese and Indian steel. Meanwhile, global steel prices are unlikely to rise broadly, constrained by a sluggish recovery in global demand and persistent oversupply in China.

In this context, domestic consumption will remain a key stabilising anchor. Trade defence measures are helping to ease pressure from low-priced imports and provide support to domestic price levels.

In the short term—at least through Q1 2026—steel producers’ margins are expected to improve, supported by a noticeable increase in selling prices over the past month. However, the sustainability of margin recovery will continue to depend on domestic demand conditions and price dynamics in China’s steel market.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

B. GLOBAL STEEL MARKET

Total global crude steel production
Top crude steel producing countries
Crude steel production performance of selected major producing countries
China’s finished steel export performance

C. GLOBAL & DOMESTIC STEEL PRICE TRENDS

Iron ore and coking coal prices
HRC prices in China and the U.S.
Construction steel prices in China and the U.S.
Correlation between domestic steel prices and global HRC price trends
Reference prices of D6 CB240 wire rod and D10 CB300 rebar from selected brands

D. VIETNAM STEEL INDUSTRY

Steel production performance by product group
Steel production and consumption performance of VSA members
[Whole industry] Steel export performance
Top steel exporting enterprises
Top steel exporters to the U.S. market
[Whole industry] Imports of finished steel and steel scrap

E. APPENDICES

Appendix 1: [Whole industry] Steel production breakdown by product
Appendix 2: VSA members’ steel production breakdown by product
Appendix 3: VSA members’ steel sales breakdown by product
Appendix 4: [Whole industry] Export volume, value and average price
Appendix 5: Steel export volume to selected markets
Appendix 6: [Whole industry] Finished steel import volume, value and average price
Appendix 7: Finished steel import volume by market
Appendix 8: [Whole industry] Steel scrap import volume, value and average price
Appendix 9: Steel scrap import volume by market

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