SUMMARY

Vietnam’s Economy in Q1 2026: Strong growth, yet insufficient to achieve the Government’s ambitious policy targets.

GDP growth reached 7.83% YoY, the highest level in recent years. Key drivers included manufacturing and exports, alongside improvements in investment inflows (particularly FDI) and domestic consumption. In addition, new growth pillars (carbon markets, digital assets, and financial centers) are being accelerated on the policy front.

However, growth fell short of expectations. GDP remained below the target range (~9–10%); growth momentum has not been strong enough to accelerate significantly; and the two key economic hubs—Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City—have yet to demonstrate a clear breakthrough. The recovery remains uneven across sectors, regions, and business segments (with SMEs still weak; the number of temporarily suspended and dissolved enterprises continues to rise); several industries and non-core growth regions are expanding more slowly than planned. Public investment has improved but still lags behind targets.

Outlook: Growth in Q2 may moderate compared to early-year expectations, due to lagged effects of cost shocks and tighter financial conditions; new growth drivers are unlikely to make meaningful contributions in the short term.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

B. KEY MARKET INDICATORS TO WATCH

C. VIETNAM MACROECONOMY

Overview of Vietnam’s economy in Q1 2026
Business performance (domestic production & business registration)
Trade performance
- Overview
- Market structure
- Export trends by selected product groups
Domestic consumption trends
Investment & fiscal position (public sector, private sector & FDI)
Key economic indicators by local economies

D. FINANCIAL MARKETS

Credit system
Government bonds
Corporate bonds
Equity market

E. SECTORAL ANALYSIS

Insurance
Power
Oil & Gas & Petrochemicals
Transportation – Aviation – Seaports
Tourism
Steel
Cement
Textiles & Garments
Fisheries – Pangasius/Shrimp
Animal feed & meat processing
Wood & wood products
Fertilizers
Rubber
Agricultural commodities – Rice / Cashew / Coffee / Pepper

F. COMMODITY PRICES & EXCHANGE RATES

Currency pairs
Prices of selected global and domestic commodities
International freight rates

G. APPENDICES – Vietnam’s Merchandise Trade with Key Partners

Appendix 1: Detailed export scale & growth by product groups and economic sectors
Appendix 2: Bilateral merchandise trade between Vietnam and major partners
- United States, China, EU, ASEAN, South Korea, Japan, and the Middle East

The UKVFTA continues bringing opportunities for Việt Nam to export coffee to the UK

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