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Concerned about drought reducing production in Vietnam, Robusta coffee prices reached a new peak

Robusta and Arabica export coffee prices are moving in a continuous 'escalating' direction, next week's prices will 'overturn' the previous week's record.

At the end of the trading session on the first day of the week of April 15, Arabica prices continued to increase for the 5th consecutive day, after increasing 2.9% to over 5,000 USD/ton, the highest in 31 months. At the same time, Robusta coffee recorded a 4% increase, ending yesterday (April 15) with an increase of 2.5% to 3,949 USD/ton; Even Robusta prices at one time exceeded 4,000 USD/ton, reaching the highest level ever recorded in history.

Specifically, on ICE Futures Europe, the price of coffee futures for delivery in May 2024 increased by 74 USD/ton, at 3,974 USD/ton, for delivery in July 2024 increased by 97 USD/ton, at 3,949 USD/ton.

Similarly, on ICE Futures US, the price of coffee futures for delivery in May 2024 increased by 6.9 cents/lb, at 231.55 cents/lb, for delivery in July 2024 increased by 6.4 cents/lb, at a level of 226.85 cents/lb.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the La Nina weather phenomenon is expected to return from June to August this year, causing concerns about frost that will delay the coffee harvest in the 2024-2025 crop. In Brazil, even young coffee plants die from the cold. This makes the supply outlook in the world's largest coffee exporting country more negative, despite both production and export figures showing signs of increase.

Specifically, Brazil's 2024 coffee output is estimated to reach 60.2 million bags, an increase of 1.4% compared to the previous forecast and 5.6% compared to 2023, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

In addition, in March, Brazil exported 4.29 million bags of coffee, an increase of 37.8% over the same period last year, according to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE). As of April 9, Brazil had sold 89% of coffee production in the 2023-2024 crop, 2 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous crop and 1 percentage point compared to the 5-year average.

Meanwhile, in Vietnam, coffee production in the 2024-2025 crop year is expected to continue to decrease compared to the current crop if the dry and sunny condition continues. The negative outlook for new crop supply has motivated farmers to hoard existing coffee, making the supply shortage in the market even more serious. Furthermore, Indonesian farmers can postpone coffee harvest until late May or June, instead of April as usual; This further narrows the current supply, thereby pushing Robusta prices up sharply.

Commodity market expert Nguyen Quang Binh said that Arabica reached its highest level in the past 18 months when hedge funds chose coffee or cocoa. Meanwhile, concerns that drought will reduce production in Vietnam continue to push Robusta to a new record.

The Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA) stated that businesses are trading at 105,000 - 110,000 VND/kg. If coffee prices increase to 120,000 VND/kg, it is normal because world demand is high while supply from Vietnam is dwindling.

From October 2023 to March 2024, Vietnam exported nearly 1 million tons of coffee, with inventory output estimated at only about 300,000 tons. Thus, it is possible that in just 2 months, Vietnam will no longer have any supply.

Export coffee prices are increasing faster than ever, from the end of last year until now, each price increase is only a short time apart but the average increase is from dozens to several dozen USD/ton. There are still down sessions between increases, but the decrease is not much and usually does not last long.

The reason for the increase is still identified by experts and businesses as stemming from the complicated El Nino situation, increasing heat and drought in major growing areas such as Brazil, and Vietnam... leading to the risk of decline. , serious supply shortage.

Record high export coffee prices have also pushed up domestic raw coffee purchasing prices to unprecedented levels. On the domestic market, the price of green coffee in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces is continuously increasing. As of April 14, the domestic coffee purchasing price has exceeded 110,000 VND/kg, fluctuating between 110,500 - 111,400 VND/kg, an increase of more than 1.6 times compared to the beginning of this year and an increase of more than 2.2 times. times compared to the same period last year.

The selling price at the garden updated on the morning of April 15 is fluctuating at 110,000 - 111,400 VND. Overall, in the past week, the domestic coffee price has increased by nearly 8,000 VND/kg and compared to the end of March 2024, the current coffee price has increased by nearly 13,000 VND/kg.

The Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA) also forecasts that the supply of goods is running out, the inventories of businesses and farmers are not much, so the export volume from now until the end of the season (September 2024) will decrease.

According to statistical data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, our country's coffee exports have shown signs of decreasing since March 2024 when exported output was only about 185,281 tons, reaching a turnover of about 680.86 million USD, a decrease of 11.9% in volume despite increasing 41.1% in value compared to the same period last year.

(Công thương)


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