Production activities of cement enterprises gradually recovered after being stagnated throughout Q3. Export volume maintained its upward momentum, domestic consumption recovered again in September 2021. Under the pressure of input materials, the domestic cement selling price increased by 50,000 - 90,000 VND/ton in T10 (equivalent to 4 - 5%)
The industry's cement consumption in the first three quarters of 2021 reached 78.99 million tons, up 7.5% over the same period in 2020. Of which, export accounted for 42.1%, domestic consumption accounted for 57.9% of total industry consumption.
For the whole of Q3-2021, domestic consumption will only reach about 63% of Q2 consumption. While export activities do not seem to be greatly affected b the epidemic, and are still the "salvation" for the whole industry, partly solving the inventory pressure.
In T10-2021, production activities of enterprises gradually recovered after being stalled throughout Q3. Production output in the month increased by 16% over the same period, but still decreased by 6% compared to October 2020.
T10 exports still maintained a good growth rate, reaching nearly 4.2 million tons, up 1.9% compared to T10-2020. Although there is no official data for T10 domestic consumption, according to preliminary estimates of the Cement Association, domestic consumption continues to recover positively. In September-2021 alone, domestic consumption reached 3.68 million tons, up 5.2% compared to September, although this level is still 24% lower than September-2020, but also shows an earlier recovery than previous concerns. there.
Domestic selling price
Since a slight increase in selling price in T04 (equivalent to an increase of 30,000 - 40,000 VND/ton), cement selling price has remained stable until T10.
However, consumption will increase again in Q4 thanks to the promotion of public investment (especially in key transport projects). Meanwhile, the price pressure of coal materials still increased sharply over the same period, creating pressure on cement prices. Therefore, from the end of October, some factories have adjusted to increase the domestic cement selling price ~an additional 50,000 - 90,000 VND/ton depending on the brand (equivalent to an increase of 4-5.5%).
Thus, after two increases from the beginning of 2021, the domestic cement price increased by a total of 8%-10% depending on the brand.
Generally, in 10M of 2021, export output will reach 37.5 million tons (up 18.3%), worth USD 1,438 million (up 22.0%) over the same period. After the decline in T05 & 06, export activity in general grew again in Q3, thanks to the large import demand from the Chinese market; compensate for the difficulties of the domestic market. In T10, exports still maintained a good growth rate over the same period, although there was a slight decrease compared to the previous month. nearly 4.2 million tons. In addition, export prices have also increased slightly since September.
Notably, China's cement import demand rebounded strongly, reaching a record high in the two months of September and October (both over 3 million tons per month). The export price to this market also increased continuously, reaching ~38.1 USD/ton in T10, and narrowing the gap with the average export price (39.0 USD/ton).
Outlook for the last 2 months of 2021
Domestic consumption is forecasted to recover when real estate projects, infrastructure and key traffic works are restarted, boosting demand for cement products.
Exports are supported by a large market like China, because this country is affected by the power crisis, and cement is also one of the industries that this country is restricting production for. reduce emissions.
Source: Extracted from Vietdata's November 2021 Cement Industry Report